Panzer Holy Question

Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Clos » Sun Feb 23, 2014 2:30 am

Midas wrote:Xanity, how many HP had Hell Fire Panzer?


Fire had approximately 5,549,594.
Holy has approximately 4,894,990.
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Midas » Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:45 am

Thanks)
That explain why I fought with Fire for 2 hours, and Holy - only one and half :lol:
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Clos » Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:53 pm

Midas wrote:Thanks)
That explain why I fought with Fire for 2 hours, and Holy - only one and half :lol:


Because no Zeus for Midas.
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Foible » Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:51 am

I have just completed 19 consecutive hell mode panzer runs without a panzer drop. Has the drop rate for this panzer been reduced to a near non existent rate? Hell mode, I assume has a higher drop rate than insane mode, but in up to 5 consecutive runs, no gold chests would drop, and in all 19 runs, at most, I saw 2 per run, none of which were Panzers, of course.

So, what gives? Is the drop rate for Holy Panzers so much worse than the Fire Panzers or have I just used up all my luck?

That is just the one consecutive run, I have done a heck of a lot more runs in total.

Update: A panzer did finally drop on run 21, but my question was really if the odds have changed compared to the fire panzers.
Last edited by Foible on Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Midas » Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:31 am

I got 11 golden chests and zero Dark Panzers.
That's a lot more that 17 runs)

It's just random, live through it.

P.S.
Let's take some Maths to help us.

Chances of getting Panzer from Hell run is 26% (0.26) And so 0.74 - chances to get nothing.
To calculate chance of getting something after 17 runs we need to use Bernoulli theorem - (1 - P^Q)

1-0.74^17 ~ 0.994 ~ 99%

You are very unlucky.
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Bigbadjohn » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:54 pm

Midas wrote:I got 11 golden chests and zero Dark Panzers.
That's a lot more that 17 runs)

It's just random, live through it.

P.S.
Let's take some Maths to help us.

Chances of getting Panzer from Hell run is 26% (0.26) And so 0.74 - chances to get nothing.
To calculate chance of getting something after 17 runs we need to use Bernoulli theorem - (1 - P^Q)

1-0.74^17 ~ 0.994 ~ 99%

You are very unlucky.


Maths may be wrong - is it really a 26% chance of getting "one or more" panzer, or is the expectation per run .26 panzers per run? That would change the odds a bit. I also suspect we are not getting pure random numbers - so a lot of 'clustering' going on.
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Midas » Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:06 pm

Unfortunate we can't get answers to this questions.
Need to check how it's coded on server)

So for now it's better to assume that numbers are pure random and trust into probabilities that developers show to us.
Until we found solid facts that they are wrong.

But with probabilities words like "solid facts" looks very fuzzy.
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Boop » Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:25 pm

Admin said in hell there was a 26% chance that a gold chest was a dragon. Not a 26% chance of getting one per run.
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Midas » Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:00 am

viewtopic.php?f=36&t=12196#p21154

admin wrote:26% chance per run on the hardest level, assuming average of 6 mixed chests per run, not per golden chests.


Are you sure?
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Re: Panzer Holy Question

Postby Foible » Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:01 am

I am sure it is a case of having consistently bad luck. I have snapshots of runs where I have had 4 gold chests and none are panzers, my last run was 3 gold chests and no panzers. I have not had any run where I have ever received more than 1 panzer, regardless of the number of chests. And, yes, I know other people have.

Update: ok, short of taking Xanity's foot for good luck, complaining here seems to have changed my luck a bit, just did 2 runs, got 2 gold chests each for a total of 4 panzers. Also, I don't think telling me to get another 24 panzers so that I can get panzers faster is really helping me get panzers any faster...
Last edited by Foible on Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:28 am, edited 2 times in total.
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