Bonus map gold chest

Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Browncoat » Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:59 am

Ben, that doesn't make any sense. From a programming perspective, that's way harder. They have said in the past that the drop is determined at the time of the spin.

So, it would be 1/50, 1/50, 1/50, 1/50....

It wouldn't make sense to do it any other way. Further, I haven't seen any change in gold chest likelihood from the first chest to the last. Perhaps you are just paying more attention to the last few chests.
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Jorge » Thu Sep 24, 2015 3:50 am

Benjamin is right. I figured it out a long time ago playing the fb version. It doesn't really add any relevant difficulty programming wise though, and in fact it helps handling the potential issue of one player entering the map with the x1.5 drop rate but fading mid-play, and vice versa.

I've played a lot of hell and especially insane bonus maps in facebook and I get at least one gold chest in pretty much half my runs (granted, in insane, most of them are usually the common gold chest). Often, the hardest part is to actually be patient enough to wait for the gold chest(s) to drop which could easily be over 500 spins or even 1000. The thing is that the drop time of a chest seems to be memoryless, so if the gold chest hasn't dropped in an hour, (assuming that a gold chest was drawn when starting the map) it doesn't mean that you're more likely to get it within the next minutes, so technically you could be waiting forever. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the complaints come from people who end many of his runs with 3-0 or 4-0 without knowing that the missing chest was almost guaranteed to be a gold chest by then. While gold chests won't necessarily take a lot of time to drop, the drop time of brown chests is so low compared to that of the gold chests that if all chests have not dropped by the spin ~400-500 you can be pretty much sure that it's because the remaining one(s) is/are gold chest(s) based on probability alone.
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Benjamin » Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:22 am

Browncoat,

Again all I'm saying is I can prove statistical significance that color of the next chest being dropped is predetermined before a spin with a higher probability of gold dropping proportional to the number of spins without a chest drop..

I've also observed many times where I've spun hundreds of times with no gold drop to then finally see gold, followed by few spins and getting a brown.

It's entirely possible PM adjusted some of these settings since when I used to autospin maps. I could autospin for 2+ hours and not get the last chest to drop. I haven't observed this lately.

As for the programming aspect, it might be slightly more complex, but not much, all they'd need to do is predetermine which random numbers assign to which chests, and in what order each color chest is eligible to drop.

While I'm only stating my opinion most of these experiences are agreed upon and are commonly considered fact in our guild.
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Benjamin » Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:55 am

They have said in the past that the drop is determined at the time of the spin.


You have citation for this? I don't believe it, maybe the drop but not the drop color.
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Jorge » Thu Sep 24, 2015 10:53 am

They have said in the past that the drop is determined at the time of the spin.
You have citation for this? I don't believe it, maybe the drop but not the drop color.
Yes, whether a chest will drop or not is, along with the rest of the reel, determined at the time of the spin (or to be more precise, at the moment the previous turn finishes). However, the time of the spin doesn't make any difference in the chest distribution within the current run. (i.e. if 4+1 was drawn when starting this map, it will be 4+1 no matter when you hit the spin button).
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Benjamin » Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:49 pm

Yeah I agree Jorge, there were complaints about not getting chests to drop fast enough and PM was considering modifying the drop rate, either way I do believe each spin is independent on past spins.

My whole argument is that I often see people complaining about drop rates and X many runs and still no gold... I question whether or not they are making sure to max the chest drops on each run, as I can't state how important it is to build a team that will grind out every possible chest to drop as the gold chests tend to drop last and can take many spins to drop.
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Armand Star » Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:19 pm

i always make sure to get all chests before finishing the map. i have been lucky, i get both gold chests in less than a week
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby thievingsquirrel » Thu Sep 24, 2015 6:39 pm

I always get both gold chest ... even if it takes 10 revives to do so (Or more for that matter)
The lazy wiki admin
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Browncoat » Fri Sep 25, 2015 7:44 am

Benjamin wrote:Again all I'm saying is I can prove statistical significance that color of the next chest being dropped is predetermined before a spin with a higher probability of gold dropping proportional to the number of spins without a chest drop..


Ok, please do so. I'd be very interested in seeing this.

You have citation for this? I don't believe it, maybe the drop but not the drop color.


I will look. BRB
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Re: Bonus map gold chest

Postby Benjamin » Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:40 am

Browncoat,

I'll log my runs when the next time limited map starts next week.

I'm using standard significance level of .05 fyi.
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