by Benjamin » Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:18 am
Are you making sure you're getting all 6 chests out of each run?
It's a well observed fact that if you go many spins without a chest drop the next chest drop will likely be gold. This seems to happen more frequently with the 4th or 5th chest drop.
To my knowledge PM has never explained drop mechanics but I am sure the drop rate is not independent for each spin.
I believe that the color of each chest drop is predetermined when starting the map, also the probability of that chest to drop. You may start a map get 3 brown chests after 10 spins, spin 150 times and get a gold, then spin 5 more times and get another brown.
So for example in a standard map, 5 chests will drop + the bonus chest for completing the stage.
Chest one 1/50 chance of gold
chest two 1/40, chance of gold
chest three 1/30, chance of gold
chest four 1/30, chance of gold
chest five 1/20, chance of gold
Bonus chest 1/50, chance of gold
then once the chest colors have been determined there's a spin probability assigned to each chest, the spin probability of the gold chests tend to be much lower, because of this you may need many spins before the gold chests will drop. I've seen situations in the past where hours went by spinning before the gold finally dropped.
The total drop rate for gold was about 17% (for time limited maps), this might be lower now since first gold chest drop rates been lowered with new maps.
Again these numbers aren't exact and is based solely on my own experience farming these maps for many hours